Trade prediction markets with AI agents β skill discovery, autoresearch, and execution.
Copy the AI prompt to install this server into Claude Code, Cursor, or another agent β or use 1-click editor setup below.
We haven't yet run this listing's install command through our automated sandbox check. This isn't a red flag β we're steadily working through the catalog.
π‘ Paste the JSON block into your client's configuration file under mcpServers, then restart the application.
Simmer is the leading prediction market harness for AI agents. Autonomous agents place trades on venues like Polymarket, Kalshi and Hyperliquid through a unified API β with self-custody wallets, safety rails, and smart context.
skills/ | 28 skills an agent installs and runs. skills/simmer/SKILL.md is the canonical source for simmer.markets/skill.md. |
mcp/ | MCP server, published to npm as simmer-mcp. |
simmer_sdk/ | Python SDK, published to PyPI as simmer-sdk. |
Get your API key from simmer.markets/dashboard.
Most Simmer users run trading skills inside OpenClaw. The standard pattern uses a lazy singleton client and reads config from environment variables:
Set environment variables:
Default to dry-run. Skills should require
--liveto execute real trades. Paper-trade with$SIMuntil your edge is consistent, then graduate to real money.
For developers building custom integrations:
| Venue | Currency | Description |
|---|---|---|
sim | $SIM (virtual) | Default. Paper trading on Simmer's LMSR markets. |
polymarket | USDC.e (real) | Real trades on Polymarket (Polygon). Requires WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY. |
kalshi | USDC (real) | Real trades on Kalshi. Requires Pro plan. |
TRADING_VENUE environment variable is read at client init β OpenClaw skills use this to select venue at startup without code changes.
Constructor side effect: for live Polymarket clients with
WALLET_PRIVATE_KEYorOWS_WALLET, regularSimmerClient(...)construction checks pending risk alerts and may submit stop-loss/take-profit exit orders. This is intentional for self-custody safety: Simmer's server cannot sign those exits. UseSimmerClient.readonly(...)for API-key validation, preflight/status checks, and other non-trading paths.
Spread caveat: $SIM fills instantly (AMM, no spread). Real venues have orderbook spreads of 2β5%. Target edges >5% in $SIM before graduating to real money.
Polymarket order types: omit
order_typefor the SDK/server smart default: buys useFAK(fill what is available immediately), sells useGTC(rest on the book to improve fill rate on thin books). For structurally thin markets or maker-style limit entries, passorder_type="GTC"and an explicitprice.
Pass live=False to simulate trades with real market prices β no wallet or USDC required. For Polymarket, fills model the CLOB bid-ask spread for realistic P&L. Resolved markets auto-settle (winning shares pay $1, losers $0).
Graduation path: sim (instant fills, no spread) β polymarket + live=False (real prices, spread modeled) β polymarket live (real USDC).
The three modes above are all live-forward. To test a strategy on historical data before risking capital, backtest the skill bundle:
The engine replays your unmodified skill against a frozen, look-ahead-safe
replay server (one subprocess per tick) and reports pnl, hit rate, max drawdown,
trades, baselines (buy-and-hold-YES / random), realism gaps, and a reproducible
config_hash. Programmatic equivalent:
Backtests use trade-tape prices (no orderbook), so they model decision quality, not execution realism β every report lists its
realism_gaps. The window slice is fetched from Simmer's tape service and cached under~/.simmer/tapes/; pass--tape <dir>to use your own. Data coverage currently ends ~2026-05-05.
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