Predictionmarketspicks MCP README
The full upstream README, mirrored here for reference. Install config, tool schemas, adoption signals, and an original overview live on the Predictionmarketspicks MCP listing page.
PredictionMarketsPicks MCP
Canonical home: predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp — docs, setup, the live wall and the per-tool track record. This repo is the bridge and the offline calculators; the server lives on the site.
A hosted Model Context Protocol server that gives AI agents quant tools for Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets — expected value, Kelly sizing, Bayesian updating, probability conversion, cross-platform price gaps, Fed rate odds, live edge signals, and the in-season NFL model: power ratings, win probability, The Ladder, the weekly prop board and game/prop edges.
Every signal our engines publish is graded against the market that priced it: 1,612 decided signals, +$98.40 net on a flat one-contract stake, as of Aug 18, 2026 — published per tool, including the engines that lose money. → predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record
- Endpoint (Streamable HTTP):
https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp - Registry name:
com.predictionmarketspicks/quant(MCP registry) - 29 tools — 22 free, 5 Pro, 2 free-with-depth-caps. No key needed for the free set. Eight of the free tools are the fantasy draft desk, parked until the 2027 offseason (see below), so 14 free tools answer in-season (the 2026 Senate map and per-race odds joined 2026-09-17).
- Fantasy draft landing page: predictionmarketspicks.com/draft — the eight draft tools, connect instructions, and the model behind the board. The desk is parked for the 2026 season and reopens for the 2027 offseason.
Connect
Any host that speaks Streamable HTTP (Claude Code, Claude.ai, ChatGPT, Cursor) — point it at the URL. Nothing to install:
Hosts that only speak stdio — this package bridges one to the other:
That relays the hosted server verbatim — all 29 tools, live data, tool schemas and result payloads untouched. Set PMP_API_KEY in the server's env to unlock the Pro tools; without one you get the free tools at free depth.
--local is a self-contained build of the six stateless calculators. It makes no network calls, so it runs in an air-gapped sandbox — but it cannot serve the live engines, the NFL model, or anything that reads a market.
Other hosted surfaces (same registry, same tool objects, different selection — no separate install):
| Server | Endpoint | Exposes |
|---|---|---|
com.predictionmarketspicks/quant | https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp | All 29 tools |
com.predictionmarketspicks/fantasy-draft | https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-draft/mcp | The 8 draft tools — parked until the 2027 offseason |
com.predictionmarketspicks/weather | https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp | The 6-tool weather loop: edge_alerts (weather feed) + the five calculators |
Tools
Free tools need no key. Pro tools read the live PMP edge engines and require a PredictionMarketsPicks API key ($14.99/mo). Deeper results on the list-shaped tools unlock instantly and free — no key to copy, nothing to install: unlock here.
Calculators — free, stateless, also available offline via --local
| Tool | What it does |
|---|---|
calculate_ev | Expected-value edge on a contract from market price + your probability; returns edge % and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read. |
kelly_size | Kelly position size (full / half / quarter / eighth) from win probability, price, and bankroll, with a risk rating. |
bayes_update | Update a prior with one or more pieces of evidence; returns the posterior and the per-step chain. |
convert_probability | Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. |
base_rate_gap | Compare a market price to the historical base rate for a class of events; returns the gap in points + sample quality. |
combo_edge | Grade a same-game multi-leg combo: EV %, fair vs offered odds, correlation-aware joint probability, negative-correlation trap flag. |
Markets — free
| Tool | What it does |
|---|---|
fed_rate_odds | Live Kalshi-implied odds of a Fed rate cut, hold or hike at each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting, plus the next meeting and the current fed funds rate. |
Markets — free, depth-capped
| Tool | What it does |
|---|---|
find_arbitrage | Cross-venue price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same contract. Largest gap free; whole board on Pro. |
market_pulse | US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime, plus six category scores. Composite always free. |
NFL in-season — free
| Tool | What it does |
|---|---|
nfl_power_ratings | PWR for all 32 NFL teams — points per game above an average team on a neutral field, with rank and tier. |
nfl_win_probability | Turn an NFL spread + total into win probability, projected score, and over/cover probability — or pass two teams to derive the spread. |
nfl_ladder | The Ladder — every Kalshi strike vs our whole distribution (spreads, season wins, props) with the derived verdict: SHAPE, LOCATION or PRICED. |
nfl_prop_board | This week's NFL prop prices venue by venue — every Kalshi strike vs the book consensus, DraftKings/FanDuel lines, Novig/ProphetX, and where the best price for each side actually is. |
ladder_arb | Ladder Arb Scanner — Kalshi college football + NFL spread/total ladders priced out of order on the same side of the same game: locked arbitrage (buy the low strike, sell the high one) and crossed-mid inversions with the resting orders that capture them. |
Fantasy draft desk — parked until the 2027 offseason
draft_board · best_available · who_do_i_draft · compare_players · player_outlook · explain_player · sleepers_and_busts · adp_market_gaps
The 2026 draft season closed on Sept 10, 2026. These eight tools stay registered (and free) but currently answer with a redirect to the in-season NFL tools above — nfl_prop_board, nfl_ladder, nfl_edge — rather than a draft answer. The desk reopens, with the 2027 board, for the 2027 offseason.
Pro — live edge engines
commodity_edge · scan_mispricings · nfl_edge · nfl_prop_edge · edge_alerts
Trade tickets from the silver, gold, oil and bitcoin engines; Polymarket contracts trading away from the PMP model; NFL game and prop edges; the alerts feed. edge_alerts is the one hybrid: Pro keys get the feed in real time, and without a key the same feed arrives delayed 24h.
All tool descriptions and outputs use prediction-market terminology (trader / position / contract / market analysis).
Source
This repo is the public home of the server: the manifest, the bridge, the offline calculator build, and the docs. The hosted service and its live data are operated by PredictionMarketsPicks — MIT license covers this repository, and no install is required to use the server.
Or run the offline build with Docker:
About
Built by PredictionMarketsPicks — independent quant tools and edge analysis for Kalshi and Polymarket, published by The 7 Oracles. Educational analysis, not financial advice.
License
MIT — see LICENSE.