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Lowriskquotes Montecarlo

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Monte Carlo tools: three-point cost estimation and an educational retirement drawdown simulator.

Quick Install

Automated & IDE Setup

Copy the AI prompt to install this server into Claude Code, Cursor, or another agent β€” or use 1-click editor setup below.

Add to CursorAdd to VS Code
Manual Client & Custom JSON ConfigExpand JSON β–Ύ

Client Config & Setup

Choose your client or environment
Target File:~/Library/Application Support/Claude/claude_desktop_config.json
claude_desktop_config.json
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "lowriskquotes-montecarlo": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": [
        "-y",
        "lowriskquotes-montecarlo"
      ]
    }
  }
}

πŸ’‘ Paste the JSON block into your client's configuration file under mcpServers, then restart the application.

Install Directory Badge Claim listing AlternativesπŸ’» More in Developer Tools

Documentation Overview

EstiMate

A mobile-first contractor cost estimation app that uses Monte Carlo simulation to provide probabilistic risk analysis for job quotes. Built natively for iOS (SwiftUI) and Android (Jetpack Compose).

Overview

EstiMate helps tradespeople and contractors move beyond single-point estimates to understand the range of likely costs and risks. Instead of guessing a single number, you input your estimates with uncertainty levels, and the app runs thousands of simulations to show you the probability distribution of total costs.

Key Value Propositions:

  • Offline-first, no login required
  • Sophisticated risk analysis on mobile (usually reserved for enterprise desktop software)
  • Helps contractors avoid under-quoting with statistically safe quote recommendations
  • Generates professional PDF quotes for clients

Features

Core Estimation

  • Project Management - Create, save, and manage multiple project estimates
  • Line Items - Add materials, labor, subcontractors, and other costs
  • Risk Levels - 5-tier uncertainty system:
    • Certain (Β±2%) - Fixed/contracted prices
    • Low (Β±8%) - Known suppliers with stable pricing
    • Medium (Β±15%) - Standard market variability
    • High (Β±25%) - Volatile or uncertain costs
    • Wild Guess (Β±40%) - Unknown scope items

Duration & Travel Estimation

  • Job Duration - Estimated days with complexity levels (Routine Β±10% to Unknown Scope Β±60%)
  • Labor Configuration - Hourly rates, hours per day, extra workers
  • Travel Costs - One-way travel time, traffic variability, site visits, mileage tracking
  • Correlation Modeling - Duration uncertainty automatically affects travel costs

Monte Carlo Simulation

  • 1,000+ iterations with convergence detection
  • Skewed distribution toward overages (realistic for construction projects)
  • Percentile outputs: P10, P50, P80, P90, P95
  • Cost breakdown by category (Materials, Duration, Travel)
  • Standard deviation and confidence level calculations

Results & Export

  • Bell Curve Visualization - Color-coded histogram of cost distribution
  • Quote Recommendations - Conservative (P50), Recommended (P80), Safe (P90)
  • PDF Export - Professional client-facing quotes with cost breakdowns
  • Share - Export via platform share sheets

Internationalization

RegionCurrencyDistanceTerminology
USUSD ($)MilesContractor, Labor
UKGBP (Β£)MilesTradesperson, Labour
CanadaCAD ($)KilometersContractor, Labour
AustraliaAUD ($)KilometersTradie, Labour
New ZealandNZD ($)KilometersTradie, Labour

Tech Stack

iOS

  • Language: Swift
  • UI Framework: SwiftUI
  • Architecture: MVVM
  • Min iOS: 14.0+
  • Storage: UserDefaults (local only)
  • PDF: PDFKit/UIGraphicsPDFRenderer
  • Charts: Apple Charts framework (iOS 16.4+)

Android

  • Language: Kotlin
  • UI Framework: Jetpack Compose
  • Architecture: MVVM with ViewModel + StateFlow
  • Min SDK: 26 (Android 8.0)
  • Target SDK: 34 (Android 14)
  • Storage: SharedPreferences + GSON
  • PDF: iText 7
  • Navigation: Jetpack Navigation Compose

Project Structure

Code
contractors_app/
β”œβ”€β”€ ios/RiskEstimator/           # iOS application
β”‚   └── RiskEstimator/
β”‚       β”œβ”€β”€ RiskEstimatorApp.swift      # App entry point
β”‚       β”œβ”€β”€ ContentView.swift           # Root navigation
β”‚       β”œβ”€β”€ ViewModels/
β”‚       β”‚   └── EstimatorViewModel.swift
β”‚       β”œβ”€β”€ Models/
β”‚       β”‚   β”œβ”€β”€ Project.swift
β”‚       β”‚   β”œβ”€β”€ LineItem.swift
β”‚       β”‚   β”œβ”€β”€ Worker.swift
β”‚       β”‚   └── SimulationResult.swift
β”‚       β”œβ”€β”€ Services/
β”‚       β”‚   β”œβ”€β”€ MonteCarloEngine.swift
β”‚       β”‚   β”œβ”€β”€ StorageService.swift
β”‚       β”‚   └── PDFService.swift
β”‚       β”œβ”€β”€ Views/
β”‚       β”‚   β”œβ”€β”€ Screens/
β”‚       β”‚   β”‚   β”œβ”€β”€ HomeScreen.swift
β”‚       β”‚   β”‚   β”œβ”€β”€ EstimatorScreen.swift
β”‚       β”‚   β”‚   └── ResultsScreen.swift
β”‚       β”‚   └── Components/
β”‚       β”‚       β”œβ”€β”€ RiskSlider.swift
β”‚       β”‚       β”œβ”€β”€ ComplexitySlider.swift
β”‚       β”‚       β”œβ”€β”€ TrafficSlider.swift
β”‚       β”‚       β”œβ”€β”€ BellCurveChart.swift
β”‚       β”‚       └── ...
β”‚       └── Utils/
β”‚           β”œβ”€β”€ Localization.swift
β”‚           └── CurrencyFormatter.swift
β”‚
β”œβ”€β”€ android/RiskEstimator/       # Android application
β”‚   └── app/src/main/java/com/riskestimator/app/
β”‚       β”œβ”€β”€ MainActivity.kt
β”‚       β”œβ”€β”€ ui/
β”‚       β”‚   β”œβ”€β”€ RiskEstimatorApp.kt
β”‚       β”‚   β”œβ”€β”€ EstimatorViewModel.kt
β”‚       β”‚   β”œβ”€β”€ screens/
β”‚       β”‚   β”‚   β”œβ”€β”€ HomeScreen.kt
β”‚       β”‚   β”‚   β”œβ”€β”€ EstimatorScreen.kt
β”‚       β”‚   β”‚   └── ResultsScreen.kt
β”‚       β”‚   β”œβ”€β”€ components/
β”‚       β”‚   β”‚   β”œβ”€β”€ RiskSlider.kt
β”‚       β”‚   β”‚   β”œβ”€β”€ BellCurveChart.kt
β”‚       β”‚   β”‚   └── ...
β”‚       β”‚   └── theme/
β”‚       β”œβ”€β”€ data/
β”‚       β”‚   β”œβ”€β”€ model/
β”‚       β”‚   └── repository/
β”‚       └── domain/
β”‚           β”œβ”€β”€ MonteCarloEngine.kt
β”‚           └── PDFService.kt
β”‚
β”œβ”€β”€ icons/                       # App icon assets
β”œβ”€β”€ PROGRESS.md                  # Project roadmap & status
└── contractor_app_market_research.md

Architecture

Both platforms follow the MVVM (Model-View-ViewModel) pattern:

Code
β”Œβ”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”
β”‚                         Views                            β”‚
β”‚  (SwiftUI Views / Jetpack Compose Screens)              β”‚
β””β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”˜
                          β”‚
                          β–Ό
β”Œβ”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”
β”‚                     ViewModel                            β”‚
β”‚  - Manages UI state                                      β”‚
β”‚  - Coordinates between Views and Services               β”‚
β”‚  - Triggers simulations                                  β”‚
β””β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”˜
                          β”‚
          β”Œβ”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”Όβ”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”
          β–Ό               β–Ό               β–Ό
β”Œβ”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β” β”Œβ”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β” β”Œβ”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”
β”‚ MonteCarloEngineβ”‚ β”‚StorageRepoβ”‚ β”‚   PDFService    β”‚
β”‚                 β”‚ β”‚           β”‚ β”‚                 β”‚
β”‚ - Simulation    β”‚ β”‚ - CRUD    β”‚ β”‚ - Generate PDF  β”‚
β”‚ - Statistics    β”‚ β”‚ - Persist β”‚ β”‚ - Export        β”‚
β””β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”˜ β””β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”˜ β””β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”˜
                          β”‚
                          β–Ό
β”Œβ”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”
β”‚                        Models                            β”‚
β”‚  Project, LineItem, Worker, SimulationResult            β”‚
β””β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”€β”˜

Data Models

Project

swift
struct Project {
    id: UUID
    name: String
    clientName: String
    createdAt: Date
    profitMargin: Double        // Default 15%
    lineItems: [LineItem]
    workers: [Worker]           // iOS only
    estimatedDays: Double
    complexityLevel: ComplexityLevel
    hourlyLaborRate: Double
    hoursPerDay: Double
    travelTimeMinutes: Double
    trafficVariability: TrafficVariability
    numberOfSiteVisits: Int     // 0 = auto-calculate
    includeReturnTrip: Bool
    mileageRate: Double
    distance: Double
}

LineItem

swift
struct LineItem {
    id: UUID
    name: String
    estimatedCost: Double
    category: ItemCategory      // Material, Labor, Subcontractor, Other
    riskLevel: RiskLevel        // Certain, Low, Medium, High, WildGuess
}

SimulationResult

swift
struct SimulationResult {
    simulations: [Double]       // All iteration results
    percentile10/50/80/90/95: Double
    mean: Double
    standardDeviation: Double
    min, max: Double
    // Category breakdowns
    materialCostP50/P80: Double
    durationCostP50/P80: Double
    travelCostP50/P80: Double
    iterationsRun: Int
    isConverged: Bool
}

Risk/Variance Multipliers

LevelVarianceUse Case
CertainΒ±2%Fixed contracts, locked prices
LowΒ±8%Reliable suppliers, stable costs
MediumΒ±15%Standard market variability
HighΒ±25%Volatile materials, uncertain labor
Wild GuessΒ±40%Unknown scope, new vendors
ComplexityVarianceUse Case
RoutineΒ±10%Repeat jobs, familiar scope
ModerateΒ±25%Standard projects
ComplexΒ±40%Multi-trade, custom work
Unknown ScopeΒ±60%Discovery needed, unknowns
TrafficVarianceUse Case
PredictableΒ±10%Rural, fixed schedule
VariableΒ±25%Suburban, normal traffic
High VariabilityΒ±50%Urban, rush hour

Getting Started

iOS

  1. Open ios/RiskEstimator/RiskEstimator.xcodeproj in Xcode
  2. Select your target device or simulator
  3. Build and run (⌘R)

Requirements:

  • Xcode 14.0+
  • iOS 14.0+ deployment target
  • Swift 5.0+

Android

  1. Open android/RiskEstimator in Android Studio
  2. Sync Gradle files
  3. Select your target device or emulator
  4. Build and run

Requirements:

  • Android Studio Hedgehog or later
  • JDK 17
  • Android SDK 26+ (min) / 34 (target)

Monte Carlo Simulation

The simulation engine uses the Box-Muller transform to generate normally distributed random values with optional skew toward overages (reflecting real-world project behavior).

Algorithm

Code
For each iteration (1,000 - 10,000):
    1. For each line item:
       - Generate random variance based on risk level
       - Apply skewed normal distribution (bias toward overages)
       - Calculate simulated cost

    2. For duration:
       - Generate random variance based on complexity
       - Calculate labor cost = days Γ— hours Γ— rate

    3. For travel:
       - Correlate visits with duration uncertainty
       - Generate traffic variance
       - Calculate travel time + mileage costs

    4. Sum all costs + profit margin

Calculate statistics from all iterations
Check for convergence (P80 standard error < 0.5%)

Read the full README β†’View source on GitHub β†’

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Frequently Asked Questions about Lowriskquotes Montecarlo

Add the following block to your claude_desktop_config.json under mcpServers: "mcpServers": { "lowriskquotes-montecarlo": { "command": "npx", "args": ["-y", "lowriskquotes-montecarlo"] } }

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Technical Specs & Signals

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TransportSTDIO
RuntimeNode.js
Last updatedSep 7, 2026
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Verified ownership8/20
Documentation & tools11/30
Adoption & activity1/15
Community engagement0/10

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