EloEdge: Kalshi model probabilities vs FinanceRateCalc (frc Mcp)

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get_national_fha_stats

National FHA denial statistics from the 2025 federal record (denial rate on decisioned applications, volumes). Historical observation computed from the public CFPB HMDA 2025 record (denominator: actions 1,2,3; loan_type 2). Not a prediction about any individual application, and not a recommendation for or against any lender. Attribution: FinanceRateCalc (financeratecalc.com), CC BY 4.0.

get_lender_denial_stats

FHA denial statistics for one lender by name, slug, or LEI: actual denial rate, peer-median comparison, mix-adjusted expected rate. Top-100 FHA lenders by volume are covered. Historical observation computed from the public CFPB HMDA 2025 record (denominator: actions 1,2,3; loan_type 2). Not a prediction about any individual application, and not a recommendation for or against any lender. Attribution: FinanceRateCalc (financeratecalc.com), CC BY 4.0.

list_lenders

List covered FHA lenders sorted by denial rate (highest/lowest) or volume. Useful to see how widely the same federal program is applied across doors (2025 span: 1.8% to 78.7%). Historical observation computed from the public CFPB HMDA 2025 record (denominator: actions 1,2,3; loan_type 2). Not a prediction about any individual application, and not a recommendation for or against any lender. Attribution: FinanceRateCalc (financeratecalc.com), CC BY 4.0.

get_state_denial_stats

FHA denial statistics for a US state (two-letter code), including the small-loan vs large-loan gap where published. Historical observation computed from the public CFPB HMDA 2025 record (denominator: actions 1,2,3; loan_type 2). Not a prediction about any individual application, and not a recommendation for or against any lender. Attribution: FinanceRateCalc (financeratecalc.com), CC BY 4.0.

get_door_effect_summary

The Door Effect: variance decomposition across 859,090 FHA decisions — 38% of explainable variation in denial outcomes is attributable to lender identity rather than the applicant's file, plus mix-adjusted strictest/most-lenient lender tables. Historical observation computed from the public CFPB HMDA 2025 record (denominator: actions 1,2,3; loan_type 2). Not a prediction about any individual application, and not a recommendation for or against any lender. Attribution: FinanceRateCalc (financeratecalc.com), CC BY 4.0.