canlicapital.com backtest validation. A verdict is not admission to anything and is not a forecast.
Copy the AI prompt to install this server into Claude Code, Cursor, or another agent β or use 1-click editor setup below.
π‘ Paste the JSON block into your client's configuration file under mcpServers, then restart the application.
The public site for Canli Capital, and the surface where ALPHAC β a four-sleeve cross-asset quant book β publishes its record while it is still small enough to be embarrassing.
Created and maintained by Arhan Canli for Canli Capital.
Development uses reviewed AI-assisted tooling, while project ownership, research decisions,
published claims, and release responsibility remain with Arhan Canli.
Machine-readable software citation metadata is provided in CITATION.cff.
The engine that produces every number here is open too: github.com/arhancanli/alphac.
Live: canlicapital.com
The site's whole claim is "a quant fund proving itself in public before it asks you to trust
it." β the tagline in config/brand.js. A site that makes that claim and hides its own source
is asking for a trust it hasn't earned. So: this is the source, including the parts that enforce
honesty on us.
The load-bearing one is docs/retracted_claims.txt in the engine repo. When a number is
withdrawn it goes on a blocklist, and check_retracted_claims.py scans dist/ and public/ for
it before each deploy. It cannot be satisfied by deleting the number β a retracted figure must
still be quotable inside its own retraction, so a match counts only when the explanation is
absent from the surrounding window.
That check exists because the retraction here had already failed twice: a withdrawn DSR of 0.83 stayed on the homepage and in the social-unfurl card for six days after the signed chain formally withdrew it. The pipeline was publishing the correction and the error in the same run.
The gate is now fail-closed for publication. Since 2026-08-19, both live_tick.sh and
live_publish.sh run check_retracted_claims.py after regeneration and skip the deploy when it
fails. Trading remains outside that blast radius: a publication defect can stop the website from
shipping, but cannot place, cancel, or delay an order.
| surface | what it is |
|---|---|
index.html | the landing: thesis, systems teaser, live record |
systems.html | how the four sleeves work |
research.html | the research programme, literature reviews, feasibility protocols |
performance.html | the methodology and the honest numbers |
progress.html | the build log |
open.html | proven in the open: the kill log, the signed chain, glass-box artifacts |
verify.html | independent verification instructions and downloadable evidence |
review.html | the governed public criticism bench for five flagship papers |
foundry.html | the fail-closed design and deployment-acceptance status for Foundry |
founder.html | the ProfilePage that resolves every Arhan Canli authorship claim |
methodology.html | evidence-linked answers to the research methodology questions |
research/*.html | 111 generated technical reports, each with Scholar metadata and BibTeX |
research/topics/*.html | 13 substantive subject and research-stage indexes |
measurements/*.html | 89 generated Dataset pages with explicit claim boundaries |
engineering.html | the open-source hub: the three repositories, what is hard in them, and a reading path |
notes/*.html | engineering notes: post-mortems, derivations and design arguments |
tools/selection-risk.html | the Selection Risk Lab: search a series with no edge, watch the deflation kill what you find |
tools/breadth.html | the Breadth Lab: what a book of N sleeves is worth, and the ceiling no amount of breadth can pass |
tools/execution.html | the Execution Reality Lab: which execution assumptions are costs, and which only look like costs |
tools/backtest-overfitting.html | probability of backtest overfitting by Combinatorially Symmetric Cross-Validation, run in the browser on your own matrix |
tools.html | the index of every browser calculator this project publishes |
developers.html | the public read API: endpoints, the response envelope, and what each response cannot be used to claim |
costs.html | every cost that can reach a return, whether the engine charges it, and which way the answer is wrong when it does not |
standards/paper-evidence.html | canli.paper-evidence.v0, a proposed open standard whose required fields are the ones a performance claim usually omits |
public/paper-state.json and public/glassbox/* are written by the engine's publish job, not by
hand. They are the machine-readable form of every claim the pages make. Current corpus counts are
derived during the build from public/research-index.json,
public/glassbox/trial_packet_manifest.json, and the generated measurement directory; the sitemap
is generated from the same files rather than maintained separately. The present build contains
263 canonical URLs in the sitemap (all indexable), plus a public noindex evidence page for every incomplete registered
trial and one archival HTML paper per registered sleeve. It publishes
identity-level packets for all 228 recorded hypotheses, while
honestly marking 226 of those packets incomplete.
Three.js, GSAP + ScrollTrigger and Lenis are self-hosted β they install from npm and Vite
fingerprints them into dist. Nothing is fetched from a CDN at runtime. The build must stay
green, and source plus dist must contain zero em dashes (U+2014); both are audited before deploy.
config/brand.js is the one place names and numbers live. js/shell.js renders the nav and footer
from it so every page ships byte-identical chrome, and js/main.js binds data-brand,
data-flagship, data-tagline and data-fact nodes from it.
STATS and FACTS are the only numeric claims permitted on the hand-authored marketing
surfaces. Generated papers and measurement pages obtain their figures from engine exports and
carry their own source paths and claim boundaries. audit-published-numbers.mjs reconciles the
shared site-level figures; do not add a number to either layer without binding it to an
authoritative artifact.
Nothing on this site or in this repo is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation. The record
published here is paper trading; the published ALPHAC strategy record includes no funded performance. Simulated and past
performance do not indicate future results. See LICENSE: provided "as is", without warranty.
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